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02.12
Outlook for 2012
By George F. McClure
Overview
Green shoots are appearing in
economic statistics, but they are fragile.
Unemployment is inching downward, but the
official unemployment rate was 8.5 percent in
November, down from 8.7 percent in October 2011.
In December, after accounting for 200,000 more
employed workers, the
official number unemployed was 13.1 million.
Another 8.1 million workers have
part-time jobs but are looking for full time
work, while 2.5 million are “marginally
attached”, wanting work but who have stopped
looking. The total was 23.7 million in December,
included in the 15.2 percent “alternative
measures of labor underutilization” (U6 in Table
A-15 above). This is down from 15.6 percent a
year earlier.
Innovation provides leverage
The focus is on innovation as a
path to improved employment, and an increase in
domestic manufacturing. A dozen facts
from Brookings Institute about innovation
include:
-
A driver for economic growth and wage increases (through greater worker
productivity)
-
Increase in U.S. life
expectancy from a reduction in infectious
diseases
-
Reduction in cost for
technology (the computing power of an iPad2
would have cost 360 years of average wages
in 1982)
-
Rising standard of living
from new organizational structures
(including social media)
-
Improved household
technology yielding more time for family and
leisure
-
The pace of American
innovation improvement has slowed over the
past forty years
-
Innovation has failed to
produce wage increases for many Americans
keeping pace for over forty years
-
Barriers to innovation exist
in both the government and private sectors
(e.g., long wait time on patent
applications)
-
Federal support for R&D has
declined significantly in recent years (from
2.2 percent of GDP in 1964 to 1 percent
today)
-
Lack of post-secondary
degrees conferred in STEM subjects in the
United States (less than half the rate as in
South Korea, and trending below 15 percent
of degrees awarded)
-
American women are less
likely to continue in STEM fields than men
-
U.S. policy makes it
difficult for international students to stay
and work (even though in 2006 47 percent of
all STEM Ph.D.s in the United States were
awarded to non-citizens)
The Outlook
As in past years, the outlook in
eight areas of significant importance to the
U.S. endeavor will be surveyed: technology,
energy, climate change, work force, employment
benefits, immigration, infrastructure and the
economy.
NextGen autonomous flight
promises increased fuel efficiency for
flights through transfer hubs (five in Europe —
London, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Luxembourg,
Berlin). And could
cut emissions by 75-90 percent.
See more on NextGen under
infrastructure.
U.S.-based multinational
companies account for 17.8 percent of total U.S.
employment and contribute 70 percent of R&D, 44
percent of exports, and 29 percent of total
capital investment. Global companies
headquartered elsewhere, once here, also make
significant economic contributions. Subsidiaries
of foreign-owned companies represent less than
one percent of all U.S. firms, but they account
for nearly 5 percent of private sector jobs, 11
percent of capital investment, 14 percent of R&D
and 18 percent of goods exported. Their jobs pay
an average of $71,000 — about one third more
than the economy-wide average.
U.S. oil prices in 2011 ranged
mostly between $88 and $101 per barrel, for West
Texas Intermediate crude. Higher prices can be
expected in 2012 if Iran tries to restrict oil
shipments through the Persian Gulf, in response
to U.S. economic sanctions against the Iran
nuclear program that can be imposed. That makes
energy independence more vital for the United
States. Fortunately, natural gas and oil
deposits extracted from shale have expanded U.S.
reserves significantly. Natural gas prices are
expected to remain near record lows for the next
two years.
The planned 1,700 mile Keystone
XL underground pipeline, designed to move heavy
Alberta crude from Canada to refineries in the
southern United States, supported by the
Canadian government, received approval from the
U.S. State Department, but presidential approval
has been put on hold until after the 2012
elections. Building the pipeline would
require up to 20,000 new construction jobs
with a smaller number of sustaining jobs
required for operation and maintenance.
U.S. oil imports from Mexico and
Venezuela
are declining; Canada ships about 2.5
million barrels of crude a day to the United
States, more than twice as much as Mexico and
Venezuela combined.
Although the payroll tax cut
extension law included a provision requiring a
decision on the pipeline by 21 February, in
November, President Obama announced "the
decision on the pipeline permit would be delayed
until at least 2013, pending further
environmental review." Prospects are good for
pipeline approval after some rerouting to avoid
ecologically sensitive areas in Nebraska.
Lacking U.S. approval, however, Canada will ship
the oil sands to China, through a western
pipeline extension to a port north of Vancouver.
Two North Dakota fields, one
atop the other, are estimated to contain over 2
billion barrels of recoverable oil.
The EPA’s
stance against coal-fueled power plants
risks blackouts and rising energy prices.
Rather than reducing coal
extraction, more coal will be diverted to
overseas shipment, as China demand increases.
The United States has large
recoverable energy resources, including 1.4
trillion barrels of oil, 2.7 quadrillion cubic
feet of natural gas, and 486 billion short tons
of coal. Canada and Mexico have further
reserves, as described in the North
American Energy Inventory.
USA Today reports that
households are paying about 1.5 percent of their
income for electricity, with both price and
consumption rising.
Consider geopolitics
Geopolitics comes into play in
the Middle East, as Iran threatens to close the
Strait of Hormuz to passage of oil tankers,
containing 35 percent of oil shipped by sea
globally or about a fifth of the world’s oil
consumption. Iran itself lacks refining capacity
for all the gasoline it consumes, so blocking
the Strait could hinder the import of needed
gasoline supplies as well as curtailing Iranian
exports of oil to China and India to earn
much-needed foreign exchange. [See Other
Resource 6 for a perspective on the relation of
this challenge to Iran’s nuclear weapons
development.]
Source: Google maps
The Persian Gulf (above) has an
average depth of 160 feet, restricting
maneuverability of naval warships and
submarines. The
Strait of Hormuz, between the Persian Gulf
and the Gulf of Oman, is 21 miles wide at its
narrowest point. Tankers entering or leaving the
Gulf use two traffic lanes, each two miles wide,
and separated by a two mile buffer zone. The
United Arab Emirates is constructing a pipeline
that would bypass the Strait for its oil
exports, but completion of facilities has been
delayed until mid-year.
Bahrain, in the Gulf next to
Qatar, is headquarters for the U.S. Fifth Fleet
with strong reason for keeping the Strait open.
Iranian speedboats or fishing dhows can deliver
mines from locations on the rocky Iranian Gulf
coast. At the conclusion of ten days of Iranian
naval exercises in the Strait in early January,
Iran warned the U.S. aircraft carrier USS John
C. Stennis (CVN 74) which had transited the
Strait from Dubai not to return to the Gulf.
Iran plans further naval exercises in the Strait
in February. Just a risk of closure of the
Strait of Hormuz could increase oil prices,
because of larger insurance risk premiums for
supertankers carrying the oil (there are about
553 very large crude carriers (VLCC) operating
worldwide, with another 53 scheduled for
delivery this year).
The USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) and
its escorts arrived in the Fifth Fleet Area of
Responsibility on 10 January to relieve the
Stennis, which had been operating there since
summer. The Vinson was joined by the USS Abraham
Lincoln (CVN 72) just 12 days later, without
incident, despite Iran's threats to close the
Strait. The United States routinely keeps 1.7
carriers on station over the course of the year.
The Stennis strike group departed the region
without incident to return home after the
successful transit.
USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) in the Persian Gulf
The Iranian air force has vastly
reduced capability since the overthrow of the
Shah in 1979, when it included F-14 Tomcats that
had been purchased from the United States. The
F-14s were
cannibalized and records destroyed by
supporting contractor personnel as they left.
ITAR (International Traffic in Arms Regulations)
has prevented any F-14 parts from being supplied
to Iran since then, although some third parties
have been detected trans-shipping parts. Most of
the present inventory is Russian MiGs or French
Mirages. The “tanker war” of 1988 began when a
U.S. warship struck a mine in international
waters. After warnings, on orders of President
Ronald Reagan, two Iranian oil platforms were
destroyed. When the Iranian navy got into the
fray, it lost a frigate, a gunboat, and three
speed boats.
The U.S. Navy is
procuring up to 55 Littoral Combat Ships (LCS)
that would be effective at minesweeping the
Persian Gulf, fighting piracy and other tasks,
but few have been commissioned thus far. For
procurement recommendations on this complex buy
see
http://www.policyarchive.org/handle/10207/bitstreams/3022.pdf.
For a chronology on the actual acquisition see
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/the-usas-new-littoral-combat-ships-updated-01343/.
The climate agreement reached in
Durban, South Africa, in December was an
agreement to begin a round of talks on a new
agreement in the years ahead. A goal was to
avoid warming the planet by more than 2ºC, above
pre-industrial levels. But with current
agreements, the increase will be 3.5ºC of
warming, not including China and India. The
Durban platform would require this limit to be
reached by 2020. Staying under 2ºC would require
immediate action — global emissions peaking in
the next five years.
The Kyoto Protocol has a fatal
flaw — it explicitly exempts fast-growing
developing countries such as China and India
from a global climate treaty. These countries
are responsible for a huge share of emissions. A
future agreement, to be negotiated by 2015, is
to cover all 194 countries, but it is not clear
how binding that will be or what emission goals
will be set forth.
The Durban agreement did
flesh out details — including a new $100
billion Green Climate Fund to help poorer
countries reduce emissions.
Stabilizing CO2 pollution in
poorer countries will be essential to ward off
climate change. But the source of the funding is
not yet clear. There could be a bill in Congress
to fund millions of dollars for solar projects
in the developing world, but in the present
financial climate that won’t go far.
The United Nations cited climate
change as a
possible cause of recent extreme weather.
Canada
withdraws from the Kyoto Protocol; saves $14
billion.
Durban conference
short on achievements.
In the United States, the
ethanol subsidy ends; energy content for
ethanol is 34 percent less than gasoline.
As
The Weekly Standard
observed, the release in early
December of more emails from the Climate
Research Unit of East Anglia University raised
new questions. The new batch of emails, more
than 5,300 in all (compared with about 1,000 in
the 2009 release), contains a number of fresh
embarrassments and huge red flags for the same
bunch of insider scientists. It stars the same
cast, starting with the Godfather of the CRU,
Phil “hide the decline” Jones, and featuring
Michael “hockey stick” Mann once again in his
supporting role as the Fredo of climate science,
blustering along despite the misgivings and
doubts of many of his peers. Beyond the purely
human element, the new cache offers ample
confirmation of the rank politicization of
climate science and rampant cronyism that ought
to trouble even firm believers in catastrophic
climate change.
A new study commissioned by the
Aerospace Industries Association (AIA),
as reported by Aviation Week,
concludes that defense contractors and their
suppliers would lose 124,428 jobs in 2013 if the
worst-case deficit-cutting scenario via August's
Budget Control Act unfolds. Based on the study's
calculation of 620,000 total jobs, the industry
would see 20 percent of its workforce vanish in
a single year. Some of this reduction is
inherent in the just-announced plan to downsize
the U.S. defense establishment.
The
loss of 1,006,315 full-time, year-round
equivalent jobs with only 124,428 of these
jobs being lost directly or indirectly from the
prime DOD contractors for this equipment and
their suppliers, while 881,887 jobs (or 87.6
percent of all job losses) would come from the
induced spending effects across all sectors of
the economy as a result of changes in payroll
spending within the aerospace and military
equipment industry.
In 2011, 14.5 percent of the
aerospace engineering workforce was eligible for
retirement.
Only five percent of American
bachelor’s degrees are in engineering, compared
with 20 percent in Asia. Of the 70,000 engineers
that the United States graduates each year, only
about 40,000 are eligible to work in U.S.
aerospace because of security restrictions.
Plus, the aerospace industry
must compete with all other U.S. industries for
these graduates.
Of Ph.D. degrees granted by U.S.
universities in 2009,
55 percent went to foreign nationals who cannot
qualify for jobs in aerospace because of
security restrictions.
In its latest quantitative
report on the U.S. science and engineering
enterprise,
Science and Engineering Indicators 2012,
the
National Science Board estimates that about
85 percent of growth in R&D workers employed by
multinational companies has been abroad, from
2004 through 2009. Rather than closing U.S.
labs, these firms have been focusing their
growth overseas. The overseas portion grew from
16 percent in 2004 to 27 percent in 2009.
Justifications cited included keeping the
research close to major customers and where most
of the talent is located. In 2008, 4 percent of
the world’s engineering degrees were awarded in
the United States, while 56 percent were granted
in Asia.
Only a third of STEM graduates
wind up working in their field. Only 30 percent
of those taking the high school American College
Test (ACT) are ready to take college science
courses. See the
STEM coalition web site.
Unemployment is
trending downward slowly — to 8.5 percent in
December 2011. Official unemployment is at 13.1
million; with other categories included, the
number is 23.7 million still unemployed.
The reauthorization of No
Child Left Behind is still pending. An
assessment after ten years is found at
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/0,9263,7601120123,00.html.
George W. Bush
observes that we may have too many goals or
measure the wrong things.
Employment for people over age
55
has reached the highest level ever, as
people fear they don’t have pensions or savings
sufficient to retire comfortably.
The trend to replace defined
benefit pensions with defined contributions in
the private sector continues. The weak economy
has caused some employers to suspend their
matching contributions to 401(k) plans.
Both pensions and health
insurance as employment benefits grew during
World War II, when wage controls prevented using
salary increases as sweeteners to attract
desirable employees. So the focus shifted to
benefits.
The cost to individuals for
employer-provided health insurance continues to
grow at rates higher than inflation, as
employers cap their own contributions.
Discussions will continue in Washington about
the need to tax employer-provided health care.
This will stimulate growing sentiment to
decouple health insurance from employment, as
employers see the provision of health care as an
irrelevant perk with Obamacare, and elect to pay
the lesser penalty for not providing the
insurance.
There will be two effects from
current trends as future retirees find that
their retirement nest eggs are inadequate and
low interest rates further limit their spendable
income below what they had planned on in years
past. One effect is the growing trend to move in
with relatives rather than maintaining a
separate residence. The other is to change
retirement plans to work more years before
retiring, or maybe not retiring at all.
Some baby boomers find that they
are members of the sandwich generation —
supporting their parents and children at a time
when they should be devoting resources to
building their own retirement nest egg.
One of the reasons for Social
Security legislation in the 1930s was to allow
seniors to leave the workforce so that
unemployed younger people could have their jobs.
Now, the seniors may want to continue working
while drawing their Social Security and Medicare
benefits.
The Congressional Budget Office
(CBO) has
issued a 12-page brief examining changes to
the Medicare eligibility age or MEA (currently
65); the early eligibility age (EEA) under
Social Security (currently 62), and the full
retirement age (FRA) under Social Securit
(currently 66 but due to increase to 67 for
people born after 1959). Increasing the MEA to
67 would cut Medicare spending by about 5
percent — the amount spent on beneficiaries age
66 and 67. Raising the FRA to 70 would
ultimately reduce Social Security outlays by 13
percent, according to CBO. Monthly benefits
would be delayed but they would be higher when
drawn. There is an earnings test for people
younger than the FRA who have substantial
earnings and draw benefits at or beyond the MEA.
The threshold for the earnings test in 2011 was
$14,160. Half of their earnings above the
threshold are withheld from current benefits but
increases later benefits (after FRA). The total
works out to about the same amount, but the
earnings test discourages work incentives.
Compared to 1940, when Social
Security began paying monthly benefits, people
are living longer today and collecting Social
Security and Medicare benefits for more years.
For someone retiring at age 65, the time in
retirement is 40 percent longer than it was in
1940 (20 years rather than 14 years). Now (as
then) women can expect to live two years longer
than men. Because their health is better, many
elderly can work more years. Disability rates
are declining as well, but with record durations
of unemployment now, there are more applications
for disability insurance.
Immigration continues to be a
hot issue, with numerous calls for comprehensive
immigration reform. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce
and the President’s Council on Jobs and
Competitiveness are two advocates of retaining
foreign students educated in the United States
by issuing green cards to recipients of graduate
degrees from U.S. schools. The logic is that
these are the best and brightest from around the
globe, their education here has been subsidized,
and we waste that investment if we force them to
return to their home countries.
Deportation won’t work where
country of origin won’t take them back (e.g.,
with a criminal record).
Many exceptions to deportation
are being
used to reduce the number deported. [See
also
http://www.washingtontimes.com//]
The
Partnership for a New American Economy is a
bipartisan group of mayors from across the
country and business leaders from all sectors of
the economy and all 50 states to raise awareness
of the economic benefits of sensible immigration
reform, including retention of foreign graduates
from U.S. schools as new citizens.
The
DREAM Act is likely to pass in some
form. It earlier passed the House but failed to
pass in the Senate.
Wideband data access for all, to
include rural areas, is a goal espoused by the
Federal Communications Commission (FCC), which
has issued an edict in that direction. However,
Congress believes that it has the charter to
further the goal, so the path ahead is not
clear. IEEE-USA, in 2009,
adopted a position supporting universal access.
The FCC plans support for
expanding wideband services through the new
Connect America Fund, with a goal of
bringing service to 18 million underserved
people, mostly in rural areas. It has an annual
budget for this of $4.5 million. It estimates
that the new Fund will, over six years, create
500,000 new jobs and $50 billion in economic
growth.
Related is the concept of net
neutrality, in which common carriers do not
discriminate among users according to the
intensity of their use. A paper surveying this
issue was
released last year by the Congressional
Research Service.
NextGen air traffic control will
require investments, mostly by airlines, to gain
the advantages of greater timeliness and fuel
efficiency.
Performance-Based Navigation (PBN),
comprised of Required Navigation Performance (RNP)
and Area Navigation (RNAV), is a vital component
of the FAA’s NextGen air traffic modernization
plan; a plan that will dramatically re-define
and improve the efficiency of air transportation
in the United States.
Consequently, leading airlines
and operators in the United States, as well as
overseas, are now equipping their fleets in
preparation for NextGen and the transition from
ground-based radar surveillance to the more
advanced and more efficient space-based GPS
system.
NextGen is on schedule to come
online in 2025, and leading airlines are already
testing and taking advantage of the benefits and
value presented by RNP — greater navigational
accuracy, superior fuel efficiency and greater
environmental sustainment through dramatic
emissions reduction.
Despite the potential of PBN,
numerous hurdles must be cleared before
airlines, operators and the FAA can fully
capitalize on its benefits; something that all
of the stakeholders
want to achieve as quickly as possible.
Improvements are planned for
surface transportation infrastructure, too.
Inland port multimodal centers,
privately funded by transportation companies
with some government support will expand ability
to operate efficiently.
Heartland Corridor improvements will cut the
transit time between Norfolk and Chicago from
four days to three.
Martinsburg, WV, and Ocala, FL,
are sites of
other planned inland ports.
Winnipeg, Canada, is setting up
one at the geographic center of north American
trade locations, with status as a foreign trade
zone. Businesses can clear customs there and
have import duties waived.
Infrastructure investment will
be limited by the recession. Best bets are small
localized improvements. Charging stations for
electric vehicles are
one such improvement. School buses and
delivery vans with fixed routes are likely
beneficiaries. Three million charging stations
could be installed. Government grants totaling
$130 million are available.
By the end of the decade, China
could see the
yuan competing with the dollar as another
reserve currency.
As the federal budget is reduced
there will be an emphasis on eliminating
government waste — see the 2011
Wastebook (Sen. Tom Coburn), 98 pp.
The payroll tax holiday will
likely be extended. Congress and the White House
agreed on a mortgage transaction fee as a way to
pay for the extensions without finding spending
cuts or tax increases to offset the cost.
A
new mortgage fee lasting for a decade may be
phased in over two years, to pay for the payroll
tax cut.
The bright spot in United States
balance of payments is aerospace exports. In
2012, Airbus will likely ship more aircraft than
will Boeing, owing to the A320NEO (new engine
option) designed to increase fuel efficiency.
Airbus began taking orders while Boeing was
still deciding the future of the B737. Later,
Boeing offered the 737 MAX, with higher engine
efficiency and other improvements. In December,
Southwest became the first customer with the
largest firm order in Boeing’s history. The fall
of the euro against the dollar works against
Airbus for sales in euros. Airbus has stopped
production of the four-engine A340 because of
its lower fuel efficiency than the B777 (which
can consume as little as 12 percent less fuel).
Airbus is still working on development of the
twin engine wide body A350 scheduled to enter
service in 2014 (its counter to the B787?).
Other competitors in the narrow-body market are
Canada’s Bombardier, China’s Comac, Brazil’s
Embraer, and Russia’s Irkut. Boeing is also
delivering the first twin-aisle 787s, three
years late.
The Way Forward
Three economists (Noriel Roubini,
et al.), calling the present situation
unparalleled — if not a depression a deep
recession “a Lesser Depression or a Great
Recession of nearly unprecedented magnitude” —
with a second recession perhaps waiting in the
wings, have
come up with a prescription.
“Since the onset of recession in
December 2007, the federal government, including
the Federal Reserve, has undertaken a broad
array of both conventional and unconventional
policy measures. The most noteworthy of these
include: slashing interest rates effectively to
zero; two rounds of quantitative easing
involving the purchase of Treasuries and other
assets, followed by Operation Twist to flatten
the yield curve yet further; and three fiscal
stimulus programs (including the 2008
Economic Stimulus Act, the 2009 American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act, and the 2010
Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance
Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act) and the
2008 Troubled Asset Relief Program to
recapitalize the banks.”
Their recovery plan includes
three “pillars”: 1) a substantial ($1.2
trillion) five-to-seven year public investment
program to repair our crumbling infrastructure
while putting people back to work; 2)
comprehensive debt restructuring proposals
focusing on the banking and real estate sectors
in particular; and 3) restoring balance to the
world economy over five to seven years by
growing domestic demand in China and other
emerging market economies, while establishing an
emergency global demand-stabilization fund to
recycle foreign exchange reserves now held by
surplus nations to boost employment in deficit
nations.
The full 35-page proposal is
found at
http://growth.newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/NAF--The_Way_Forward--Alpert_Hockett_Roubini.pdf
Unknowns
It is worthwhile to keep in mind
what is not known. In this category are:
-
Possible breakup or withdrawals
from the Euro-zone, following the downgrading of
nine countries’ debt, including France
-
Reaction of China to urgings to
observe sanctions on Iran. China buys oil from
and sells weapons to Iran.
-
Outcome of the parliamentary
elections in Iran scheduled later this year
(dissenters may be suppressed).
-
Iran backing off or pushing
forward on its weapons-grade uranium processing
program (it has recovered from damage caused a
year ago to its centrifuges by the Stuxnet worm)
new International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
report.
-
Effects of inflation on the
Iranian economy (currently running at 20 percent
per month).
-
China saber-rattling about
reducing the independence of Taiwan, a valued
trading partner for the United States and
customer for 66 F-16 fighters and 42 F-35 Joint
Strike Fighters over several years. Taiwan
considers itself to be the independent Republic
of China, while the Peoples Republic of China
considers it to be a special administrative
region, under control of the mainland, along
with Hong Kong and Macau.
-
Policy changes in the new
government for North Korea to protect its
citizens from starvation rather than continue
financing its nuclear weapons program through
arms smuggling to Iran and others; whether the
six-party talks will be resumed.
-
How China will handle its high
unemployment and inflation, as domestic consumer
demand is inadequate to make up for the loss of
foreign exports.
Other resources
1. The age of deleveraging:
Investment strategies for a decade of slow
growth and deflation, A. Gary Shilling;
2011, J. Wiley & Sons
2. Endgame: The end of the
debt supercycle and how it changes everything,
John Mauldin and Jonathan Tepper; 2011, J.
Wiley & Sons
3. Foreign Affairs, Special
Anniversary Issue, January/February 2012;
especially “Time to Attack Iran,” Matthew
Kroenig [Makes the argument that stopping Iran’s
nuclear program will be much more difficult
after it hardens production sites and
demonstrates completed operating weapons].
4. Five myths about the European
Debt Crisis, Carmen Reinhart-
http://www.aei.org/article/economics/fiscal-policy/five-myths-about-the-european-debt-crisis/
5. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
fosters innovation, but since the late 1990s our
FDI has dropped by about a third, from 26
percent of global total to 18 percent today. See
“Five Common-Sense Initiatives to Boost Jobs and
Competitiveness,” President’s Council on Jobs
and Competitiveness
http://files.jobs-council.com/jobscouncil/files/2011/10/JobsCouncil_InterimReport_Oct11.pdf
Initiative 3, “A National Investment
Initiative,” page 23
6. “The Mortal Threat from
Iran,” Mark Helprin. Wall Street Journal,
January 18, 2012
http://online.wsj.com/article/
7. "Budget and Economic Outlook,
Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022," Congressional Budget
Office,
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/126xx/doc12699/01-31-2012_Outlook.pdf
George F. McClure, an IEEE
Life Fellow, is Technology Policy Editor for
Today’s Engineer and a resource member of the
IEEE-USA Career and Workforce Policy Committee.
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