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12.11
The Future of
U.S. Manufacturing
By Nicholas Diakopoulos
Throughout history, technology
has without fail redefined and reinvented the
way that goods are manufactured. Today, labor
continues to be offset by advances in
technology such as robotics. A recent
book by MIT economists Erik Brynjolfsson and
Andrew McAfee takes this trend to its logical
conclusion and asks what are some of the
implications of machines and artificial
intelligence increasingly replacing humans in
the workforce. How will the engineers fare in
this transition?
Productivity
The rise in productivity in the U.S. economy
has continued unabated, not even flinching at
the Great Recession, and reached an all-time
high in 2010. This graph shows U.S. productivity
with a baseline of 100 being the productivity in
2005.
By: Nicholas Diakopoulos (http://www.nickdiakopoulos.com)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OECD,
worldrobotics.org
Manufacturing Employment
Traditionally speaking, skyrocketing
productivity should drive down prices, increase
demand for products, and spur more hiring. But
as this graph shows, U.S. employment in
manufacturing has dwindled substantially since
2001.
By: Nicholas Diakopoulos (http://www.nickdiakopoulos.com)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OECD,
worldrobotics.org
Industrial Robots
One of the
explanations offered for this growth in
productivity with no corresponding growth in
employment is that automation and robotics are
replacing labor with capital. Asia is way ahead
in employing robots. Not to mention robots don't
unionize or impose social security taxes.
By: Nicholas Diakopoulos (http://www.nickdiakopoulos.com)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OECD,
worldrobotics.org
Skill-Biased Technical Change
(SBTC)
Factory automation often reduces demand for
low-skill labor but simultaneously increases
demand for higher-skill labor. Engineers and
other STEM occupations should be safe, even as
robots are increasingly employed in
manufacturing. The graph below shows the growing
proportion (and thus importance) of STEM
occupations in manufacturing over the last seven
years. But don't forget, absolute employment in
manufacturing, including in STEM occupations, is
still down.
By: Nicholas Diakopoulos (http://www.nickdiakopoulos.com)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OECD,
worldrobotics.org
Nick Diakopoulos is an
independent researcher in computational media,
with expertise in social computing,
visualization, games, and journalism technology.
He has a Ph.D. in computer science from the
School of Interactive Computing at Georgia Tech,
and was a Computing Innovation Fellow at Rutgers
University from 2009-2011. During the summer of
2009, Nick served as IEEE-USA's Mass Media
Fellow. You can find Nick online at
http://www.nickdiakopoulos.com/
and follow him on Twitter:
@ndiakopoulos
To see this story with
animated infographics, visit:
http://nad.webfactional.com/eiu/te/index.html
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