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07.09
The Growing Threat of
Space Debris
By Albert
Glassman, IEEE Life Member
Introduction
In the early months and years
after the Space Age began in October 1957, the
main environmental concerns satellite
owner/operators had regarding the operational
health of their satellites from a physical
perspective were meteors (or, more precisely,
meteoroids). Since at least a portion of many
early satellites' orbits passed through
relatively low altitudes, then, as orbit
maintenance terminated with end-of-mission, the
drag from the upper reaches of the Earth's
atmosphere would gently cause these satellites
to slowly reenter the atmosphere. Once entering
the denser atmosphere (the great incinerator in
the sky), the satellites, much like meteors,
would "burn-up," though, on occasion, some
pieces would reach the ground.
As time passed, space technology
advanced, space applications expanded, and, for
many years, the Cold War spurred competition in
space. Launches of spacecraft became much more
frequent. Spacecraft tended to be placed into
increasingly higher
operational orbits, reaching levels that,
thereby, largely eliminated the practical
effectiveness of the natural self-cleaning of
space offered by atmospheric drag. Additional
effort and cost then became required to remove
satellites from space at end-of-mission or, at
least, from the areas of space densely occupied
with operating satellites. Often, removal was
shunned.
Thus, the region of outer space
around the Earth (much like areas of land,
water, and air at various points in time) is
becoming polluted. The amount of man-made (or,
in today's vernacular, anthropogenic) space
system junk and fragments orbiting the Earth has
surged over many years, not only from the
numerous launches, but, more significantly, from
fragmentation of items placed in orbit.
Currently, by US Air Force estimates — 19,000
objects (roughly 10 centimeters or larger) orbiting Earth are tracked, of which, 1,300 are
active payloads.1
Others assess there to be about 900 active
(i.e., maneuverable)
satellites in orbit.2
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Collision illustration
Photo credit: Analytical Graphics Inc.,
castor2.ca |
The collision of the derelict
Soviet/Russian communications satellite Cosmos
2251 (a Strela-2M) and the operational
commercial Iridium-33 satellite at 790
kilometers above northern Siberia on 10 February
2009 created broader awareness of the space
debris problem.3
In addition, on 15 March 2009, a month later,
the last minute discovery of a piece of debris
about to come dangerously close to the
International Space Station (ISS) caused a
hurried evacuation of the crew into the docked
Soyuz lifeboat, further magnifying space debris
concerns.4
The limited effectiveness of
existing voluntary international debris
minimization guidelines may be appreciated by
recognizing that China, while participating in
the drafting of debris mitigation guidelines at
the United Nations, performed an anti-satellite test on 11
January 2007, creating the most space debris
from any single event.5
Furthermore, Iran and North Korea, whose
activities on the World stage are often not well
understood, are on the verge of acquiring
significant space launch capability. Thus, a
great need for a more comprehensive and uniform
international commitment to space debris
mitigation exists (or, planet Earth may start to
look more like Saturn).
What is Space Debris?
Generally, "space debris" refers
to any man-made material
orbiting the Earth which is no longer
operational or useful — including non-functional
or decommissioned spacecraft and any fragments
thereof, spent rockets, and items cast off
during the mission. Also, any of these man-made
objects that had orbited the Earth and
subsequently reentered the Earth's atmosphere,
as well as any portions that survive reentry and
reach the Earth's surface, may be referred to as
space debris.
Unlike meteors, which are
naturally occurring small rocks and particles of
matter coming from regions far out beyond the
Earth on high speed paths toward Earth and
usually burning-up in the atmosphere, space
debris is man-made material in orbit around the
Earth for at least some period of time.
Thousands of spacecraft have been launched into
orbit since 1957. These spacecraft and
associated rockets become the primary sources of
space debris. Since, for many years now, the
rate orbiting debris eventually reenters the
atmosphere continues to lag behind the rate new debris
is introduced, the amount of debris orbiting the
Earth continues to increase. Some estimate a
debris density in certain regions might soon be
reached such that typical occasional collisions
among space debris could elevate to a chain reaction of debris
forming more debris pieces.6
The introduction of space debris
results from a variety of events in addition to
basic on-orbit retirement of spacecraft. For the
typical spacecraft mission, a major piece of
debris is the rocket stage that finally places
the spacecraft into the orbital region for its
operations. If solid fuel is used in the final
stage rocket, aluminum oxide slag may be
expelled. Small items that might be ejected at
start-of-mission include pieces of explosive
bolts that held the spacecraft attached to the
rocket, separation springs, lens covers, etc.
Over time, the sun and other environmental
factors may cause spacecraft surface coatings to
peel and chip. At end-of-mission, the spacecraft
may be maneuvered to reenter the atmosphere,
moved to a graveyard orbit, or abandoned in its
operational orbit. (Abandonment may not be
optional if loss of communications, fuel
depletion, etc. may have occurred.)
Manned-space has its unique
debris contributions. The major difference from
robotic missions result from activities of space
station occupants. Cosmonauts on early Soviet
space stations apparently released various items
as part of experiments. Occupants of the Russian
space station Mir reportedly tossed out roughly
200 plastic bags of assorted trash.7
Tools, gloves, etc. have been lost during
space-walks. However, space stations generally
are terminated with controlled reentry. The
supporting ferry vehicles contribute debris much like
robotic missions, except the Soyuz passenger
module is designed to return to Earth. The
Shuttle drops its external tank and solid
rockets before reaching orbit.
Radioactive space debris occurs
as well. The Soviet/Russian RORSAT series of satellites
are rather notorious ocean reconnaissance
spacecraft, carrying high-powered radar whose
energy was supplied by an on-board nuclear
reactor using enriched uranium. In July 2008,
Cosmos 1818, a RORSAT having been retired in its
800 km orbit 21 years previously, appears to
have fragmented, or at least is leaking a cloud
of reactor coolant, a liquid sodium-potassium (NaK)
alloy. Earlier RORSATs
operated at much lower orbits and at end-of-life
usually sent their reactor cores to a graveyard
orbit at about 900 km altitude. About 16 of
these 31 reactor cores also have leaked NaK
coolant. As
a result, about 100,000 NaK globules, measuring
1 to 6 cm, are estimated to be orbiting in the
800-900 km altitude region. The globules likely were
radioactive when released, but, probably, are
nearly benign now.8, 9
The United States has also contributed to
the collection of radioactive material in orbit
through the use of Radioisotope Thermoelectric
Generators (RTGs) for power systems in
Earth-orbiting satellites such as Transit,
Nimbus, and LES 8&9.10
(RTGs usually employ the decay of Plutonium 238
for energy.) Many of these old satellites remain
in orbit.
In terms of numerical quantity,
however, most space debris originates from the
fragmentation of orbiting spacecraft and rocket
upper stages — usually, months or years after
their missions have ended. Some estimate these
events to have occurred over 200 times.11
Most, apparently, were spontaneous.
The mechanisms for spontaneous
fragmentations are not fully understood nor
absolutely identified in each case. For
satellites, these are usually attributed to
overpressure caused by solar heating of residual
fuel, tanks with gasses for fuel pressurization,
or batteries. One space system series that is
particularly egregious is the Soviet/Russian
EORSAT (the electronic-signal ocean
reconnaissance satellite). In the most recent
event, Cosmos 2421
fragmented in early 2008; reportedly, now about
22 out of 50 EORSATs launched have exploded.12
(Some suspect that not all these fragmentations
were actually spontaneous.)
For upper stage rockets in
orbit, the source of fragmentation is usually
assessed to be leaking fuel. The can be
spectacular when a rocket is left with large
amounts of propellant after a mission failure
and the propellant is hypergolic (i.e., the
liquid fuel and oxidizer self-ignite upon
contact). Astronomers in Australia
serendipitously photographed the explosion of
the Russian Briz-M upper stage on 19 February
2007, creating about 1,000 pieces of debris.13
Other space debris results from
collisions among existing debris or between
debris and operational satellites. The only
collision between two satellites, Iridium-33 and
Cosmos 2251, created hundreds of debris pieces
in expanding clouds generally moving along the
original orbits of the two satellites. Two other
collisions involving operational satellites have
been documented: the French satellite Cerise had
about 4 meters of its gravity gradient boom
broken off by a fragment of an Ariane rocket in
1996, and Cosmos 1934 was likely destroyed by a
fragment of Cosmos 926 in 1991.3
Another significant source of
space debris is intentional fragmentation of
satellites. Many assess that certain Soviet
military satellites carried explosives that were
detonated by ground command at end-of-mission.
(Most all of that debris likely has since
burned-up in the atmosphere.) Also, in the 1970s
through early- to mid-1980s, the Soviets and
Americans performed anti-satellite (ASAT) tests.
The Soviet ASAT vehicles are believed to have
released waves of buckshot at their target
satellites, and the United States destroyed its orbiting Solwind
solar science satellite with a missile in 1985.14
More recently, as mentioned
earlier, China performed an ASAT mission against
its aging FY-1C weather satellite at 855 km
altitude on 11 January 2007 using a missile,
ignoring existing international space debris
mitigation guidelines and the requirement for a
preceding announcement as stated in Article IX
of the Outer Space Treaty. That event created
about 2,500 pieces of debris. Furthermore, this
tragically occurred at a relatively high
altitude and near a heavily used region of
space. On 21 February 2008, about a year later,
the United States, after announcing its intentions, used
a missile to destroy one of its military
satellites at just under 250 km altitude. The
satellite was nearly fully fueled and
uncontrollably descending into the atmosphere.
The United States was concerned about potential injury
and damage on Earth if some action were not
taken. Within about a month, almost all the 360
pieces of debris had reentered the atmosphere
and, presumably, were vaporized.15
Unrelated to spacecraft, one of
the most bizarre space debris events occurred in
1963. Under the U.S. DoD project West Ford,
short thin copper wire "needle-like" fragments
were placed in a 3500 km orbit to act as
dipoles. By one account, 480 million of these
needles were placed in a band 8 km wide and 25
km long. Much, apparently, remains there, having
gathered into numerous clusters.16
The threat posed by space debris is
not limited to outer space. On occasion,
aircraft pilots see nearby debris streaking
through the atmosphere. Whether those sightings
were actually caused by space debris or meteors
often tends not to be clear. No aircraft
apparently have been hit by falling space
debris.
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Cosmos 954 crash site
Photo credit: Wikipedia Commons |
Often, space debris survives the
fall through the atmosphere and hits the ground.
Lists and photographs of such exist. Perhaps the
two best-known occurrences of uncontrolled
crashes of spacecraft are those of Skylab, a
large U.S. space station, and
Cosmos 954, a RORSAT. Skylab, weighing over 80
tons, entered the atmosphere on 11 July 1979 and
disintegrated, harmlessly scattering debris over
the Indian Ocean and along a 75 x 4400 km strip
of western Australia, which, apparently, was
largely uninhabited.17
On 24 January 1978, Cosmos 954 reentered the
atmosphere and broke-up, scattering debris over
the frozen Canadian wilderness and tundra from
Great Slave Lake to Baker Lake in the Northwest
Territory. No injuries were reported, but
radioactive debris was included in the 120,000
square km area affected.18
Why is space debris a
concern?
To begin with, there is no
question that a considerable quantity of
anthropogenic material orbits the Earth, which,
as the result of a collision, potentially could
harm a spacecraft or humans in space. Two
regions of space are heavily used and, thus, of
greatest concern. One is the low Earth orbit
(LEO) regime, an area up to 2000 km altitude
with numerous spacecraft in nearly circular
orbits with a wide range of orientations. The
other is the region around the geosynchronous
equatorial orbit (GEO), a circular orbit with
24-hour period located about 35,700 km above the
equator.
On average, down to particles
under a centimeter in size, spacecraft in LEO
are more likely to encounter space debris
impacts as opposed to meteor impacts. Since
either debris-type at less than a millimeter in
size generally poses little or no significant
impact threat to spacecraft, space debris
generally tends to be more of a concern than
meteors, a concern that is growing. On the other
hand, in GEO, meteors likely represent a larger
fraction of the collision threat than in LEO.
Evidence of debris impact flux
in LEO is widely documented. Impact craters are
clearly visible on various items brought back to
Earth from orbit such as satellites, a Hubble
solar panel, and the Long Duration Exposure
Facility (LDEF), which accumulated some 30,000
craters after over 5 years in LEO more than 20
years ago.19
Shuttle windows have had to be replaced many
times. Estimates of the space debris population
vary greatly, but, generally, a few hundred
thousand for debris over one centimeter are
assessed and many million for debris over one
millimeter. Clearly, the most vulnerable space
occupant is a space-walker because spacesuits
provide protection against loss of pressure only
for small debris (micrometeoroid size);
fortunately, no difficulties have been
encountered. An example of this concern is
NASA's having selected a Shuttle orientation
during the recent servicing of Hubble on the basis of
protecting the astronauts and Shuttle tiles from
debris.20
Note that the dynamics of the
meteor and space debris threats differ somewhat
— any spacecraft along the path of a meteor is
vulnerable, but an element of space debris in
the same orbit (i.e., path) as a spacecraft
poses little or no threat to the spacecraft. Collisions
can occur only if orbits cross. (Strictly
speaking, the same is true for the hyperbolic
orbits of meteors). Thus, collisions tend to be
more rare in GEO, essentially being a single
orbit.
An analysis of the event in
which the derelict Russian Cosmos 2251 and the
operational Iridium 33 collided, demolishing
both, might be instructive. The misfortune
occurred on 10 February 2009 about 790 km over
northern Siberia. In compliance with the UN
Registration Convention, the orbit of Cosmos
2251, launched 16 June 1993, was listed as 821
km x 783 km at 74 degrees inclination. Iridium
satellites like Iridium-33 (launched on 14
September 1997), all list at 780 km x 780 km at
86.4 degrees inclination. Thus, the orbital
altitudes were close, but the orbits would not
cross.
Over time, orbit parameters vary
due to orbit perturbations and orbit maintenance
maneuvers. When the crash occurred, Cosmos 2251
had long since been abandoned, thus terminating
its orbit maintenance. The orbit parameters of
Cosmos 2251 had become 803 x 767 x 74 degrees and
Iridium-33 was at 796 x 785 x 86.4 degrees. Now, an
orbit intersection and collision became
possible. However, major satellite
constellations such as GPS and Iridium use
identical orbit sizes and inclinations,
potentially resulting in numerous orbit
intersections. No ill effects occur here since
orbit parameters and satellite phasing are
controlled by the satellite operators. (For an
animated illustration of the Iridium satellite
system, see:
www.crystalcommunications.net/satellite/iridium/about_iridium.htm.)
No doubt, over periods when
satellite orbits intersect, the probability of
collision is low. For example, assume that the
same two satellites as above are each about 4
meters long and are approaching each other
oriented to result in the longest exposure time.
Thus, say Iridium, would be vulnerable to to a
collision
over a distance of 8 meters around the
intersection point. Traveling at nearly 7.5
km/sec, that amounts to an exposure time of
0.001 seconds in every 100 minutes (the orbital
period) or one chance of collision in over 6
million on any orbital pass.
Even with the small probability
of a collision, such a situation must be watched
because of huge financial risk, likely impact on
operations, and possible threat to others from
new debris. Iridium was doing fine in
controlling phasing among its constellation of
66 satellites. However, commercial satellite
operators cannot be expected to have worldwide
precision tracking capability nor sophisticated
analysis resources to determine the precise
whereabouts of nearby satellites from other
systems, especially if the satellite is
abandoned. Precious fuel can be wasted for
avoidance maneuvers that are unnecessary. For
location information on these other satellites,
commercial operators often depend on the Two
Line Element (TLE) sets provided by U.S.
military. Unfortunately, this data lacks the
necessary precision, may not be updated with
sufficient frequency, and omits certain
satellites.21
The GEO regime is more orderly
than in LEO and may suffer more from natural
debris than man-made debris. Satellites are
roughly arranged like a string of pearls. Each
satellite has a box along the GEO orbit within which it
must reside while operational. Generally,
everyone knows their neighbors and usually has
good working relationships with them.
Occasionally, a satellite will pass by GEO
satellites on its way to a specific station in
GEO; no difficulties have been experienced. At
retirement, most GEO satellites are lofted into
a somewhat higher orbit. Several satellites,
however, have been left abandoned in GEO. As
these age, a threat of fragmentation exists and,
as orbit inclination and other orbit parameters
drift, a threat of collision could possibly
arise. No significant problems are known to have
occurred in the GEO regime.22
In addition to debris concerns
in orbit, material that survives reentry potentially poses some threat to people
and property. Better tools are needed to assess
what might hit the ground and where. The
uncontrolled reentry of Skylab and RORSAT
scattered debris over a couple hundred thousand
square kilometers of land. Intense concern arose
around the world as these spacecraft sank lower
into the atmosphere because the area of impact
remained uncertain until close to the end of the
fall. Those impacts fortunately occurred across
remote land areas; other uncontrolled reentries
have fallen into the oceans. The decision of the
United States to perform a low altitude ASAT operation
against a wayward military satellite on 20
February 2008 to minimize the danger to life and
property generated broad criticism, but the
objective was met.
What should be done about
this situation?
The ultimate objective guiding
responses to remedy the space debris situation
must be to sustain the benefits of space for
present and future generations. No one wants to
pay the penalty of increased shielding. So,
responses seek to reduce the likelihood of any
type of collision and typically fall into three
areas: traffic management (relations with other
objects in orbit), code of conduct (primarily,
minimizing debris from individual spacecraft
missions), and space environment clean-up.
Regarding traffic management,
the collision of Iridium-33 and Cosmos 2251 has
generated additional attention on space
situational awareness (SSA), referred to by some
as "international civil space situational
awareness" (reflecting the global nature of
the problem for the civil/commercial communities). Upgraded SSA is the most
achievable near-term accommodation of the space
debris threats. A commercial operator usually
has good knowledge of where his space assets are
but generally has limited ability to determine
what dangers may lurk nearby. Congress set up
the Commercial and Foreign Entity (CFE) program
during 2004.23
In response, Air Force Space Command provides
orbit information in the form of Two Line
Element (TLE) sets to registered commercial and
foreign users through the Web site
space-track.org.
(Similar information is publicly available but
probably not as accurate.) With special request,
Air Force will also provide more precise data
and some analysis. However, the military still
remains concerned about liability and security.
Criticism of the CFE system
include accuracy still being inadequate, updates
not being sufficiently frequent, inclusion of
maneuvers tend not being timely, certain
national security satellites that might be
relevant to an operator's SSA not being
included, and special requests taking an
inordinate turn-around time. These shortcomings
can make the CFE process seem futile. In
frustration, some GEO operators have looked into
in-house systems augmented by information from
cooperative neighbors. However, problems can
exist with using data from other satellite
operators because standards are lacking in areas
such as accuracy, coordinate systems,
terminology, format, and privacy.21
Note that various organizations
have been dealing with standards for similar
space-related data. They could have a role in
the SSA standards issue.24
These include the Consultative Committee for
Space Data Systems (CCSDS), the Center for Space
Standards and Innovation, and the UN's
International Standards Organization.
In an effort parallel to CFE,
STRATCOM's Joint Space Operations Center had
been watching 140 high-priority spacecraft for
conjunctions (i.e., close approaches) and
computing the probability of collision, but not
including Iridium. After the crash, the number
was increased to 330, presumably including
Iridium, and will further expand to include all
maneuverable satellites by 1 October. Two new
space tracking systems are coming, the
Space-Based Surveillance Satellite (probably,
Fall of 2009) and the Space
Fence (deployment in 2015), which will greatly increase SSA
capability for this program.1
Nevertheless, to problem is too extensive to
solve without international cooperation in terms
of resources and commitment. Some suggest an
international clearinghouse be established for
civil/commercial SSA.
Another space management issue
might be limitations on how close to the orbit
of another's satellite one might safely set up
operations. A related issue would involve who
should move and how much when two operational
satellites are on a collision course.
Code of conduct efforts has
largely dealt with space debris mitigation
guidelines. Various versions have been
published, e.g., NASA, Inter-Agency Space Debris
Coordination Committee, and UN Committee on the
Peaceful Use of Outer Space (COPUOS) in 2007.
Subsequently, on 12 December 2007, the UN
General Assembly adopted the COPUOS guidelines.25
Briefly, they say: limit debris released,
minimize potential for spontaneous break-ups,
avoid collisions, refrain from intentional
destruction, initiate reentry or go to a
graveyard orbit at end-of-mission, and deplete
energy sources of satellites staying in orbit
after end-of-mission (also known as
pacification).26
Little has been accomplished to
supplement the natural clearing of space debris
from the environment beyond controlled reentries
and graveyard orbit delivery. The latter
obviously leaves debris in space, some of which
could possibly fragment. Various space tug
schemes to remove dead satellites and spent
rocket upper stages exist — such as DARPA's
Orbital Express and the life extender/rescue
vehicle of the German Aerospace Center (DLR)
Robotic Institute. Drag enhancers, magnetic
field exploiters, and laser systems have been
proposed for LEO debris reduction. Such
suggestions tend to be fraught with concerns
that more spent rocket motors will be
introduced, more debris will be created, an ASAT
dual-use capability exists, or they are
impractical.27
Conclusions
The amount of space debris in
orbit continues to grow. To sustain space as a
resource for the many benefits it provides today
and those surely coming in the future, a number
of activities and commitments must be
invigorated. Space situational awareness must be
expanded to include at least all operational spacecraft
and be available in a reliable and timely
manner. International cooperation among
spacecraft owner/operators and between them and
the tracking/analysis facilities, while
maintaining privacy and security, must be
encouraged. Standards need to be developed to
facilitate information exchanges in this
cooperation. Guidelines for space debris
mitigation should be maintained and respected.
Research for ways to remove debris from space
which are effective, affordable, avoid
collateral damage, and minimize space warfare
concerns should continue. Acceptable procedures
to limit the potential for injury and property
damage on the ground from uncontrolled reentry
of dangerous spacecraft must be found.
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Dr. Albert Glassman is an
IEEE Life Member and a member of IEEE-USA's
Committee on Transportation and Aerospace
Policy. In 2008, he served as the Institute of
Navigation's AAAS Science Congressional Fellow
in the House of Representatives with Rep. Dana
Rohrabacher (R-Calif.), a member of the House
Science & Technology Committee. In 2007, he was
a member of a team headed by Professor John
Logsdon, in consultation with NASA managers and
former astronauts, that drafted a treaty for
international cooperation in protecting the
Earth from asteroids, which eventually was
submitted to UN COPUOS. Dr. Glassman worked for
nearly 20 years in private industry, followed by
20 years in the Department of Defense until his
retirement in April 2005. Over those years, he
held various positions with space-related
responsibilities for analysis, design, launch,
space operations, international space, and
policy. He was a consultant during 2005-2007.
Among national-level projects accomplished, he
helped draft President Bush’s 2004 National
Security Presidential Directive on Space-Based
Positioning, Navigation and Timing. Dr. Glassman
holds a Ph.D. in aerospace engineering from UCLA
and a J.D. from George Washington University.
Comments on this article may
be submitted to todaysengineer@ieee.org.
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