November 2006

Future Energy Technologies and Employment Challenges

By Leonard J. Bond

A secure, affordable, sustainable energy supply, with limited environmental impact, is critical to ensuring enduring prosperity in the United States. The United States faces major challenges in meeting projected energy demand in an increasingly energy-hungry world and in developing the necessary next-generation workforce to support energy delivery.

The world is not running out of energy, but there is a need to diversify the energy resources used. It has been said that we don't have an energy crisis, but we do have an energy investment crisis. Major investments to diversify and build additional capacity into the U.S. energy supply will be needed over the next 20 years. Some estimate $1,000 Billion needs to be invested each decade in North America to meet energy demand, with half of these funds spent in the electric sector. If greenhouse gas emissions and climate change are to be addressed, there is also the need to look at new technologies which limit or eliminate emissions: renewables, nuclear and clean-coal with carbon sequestration, as well as new end use technologies, such as hydrogen fuel cell powered cars. The United States must look to indigenous energy resources, a revitalized energy workforce and utilization of new technologies. Business as usual will not be adequate to meet the challenges. Action and investment plans are critical to ensuring that the lights stay on and cars have fuel supplies at reasonable cost. Long-term planning is needed to ensure a smooth transition to a New Energy Economy.

The "energy system" brings together energy "sources" that nature provides (e.g. coal, wind, oil, etc.), through "currencies" (e.g. gasoline, electricity, etc.) to deliver "services" (e.g. transportation, warmth, etc.). It is the energy system developers that create the various alternate pathways from sources to services, and in the market economy it is the free market, combining effects of price and policy, that are the drivers to guide supply and investment. The U.S. energy system delivers more than 104 quadrillion Btu (2005), about 25 percent of global demand, and 86 percent of this energy is provided by hydrocarbons.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the energy industry, including electric and gas utilities, nuclear power generation, mining (including coal and minerals), and oil and gas extraction in 2003 was $352 billion, a 3.2 percent share of the national total (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis). The significance of this activity is much larger than simple GDP percentage indicates, as clearly much of the rest of the economy, and U.S. lifestyle, is dependent on a secure and affordable energy supply. Ensuring electricity supply is essential for achieving U.S. national security, in continuing U.S. prosperity and in laying the foundations to enable future economic growth.

Looking to the future just for electricity generation, one scenario is that by 2025 the United States can be expected to add 25 GW(e) of renewable energy, 25GW(e) of nuclear and 80 GW(e) of advanced coal, integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technology. As the United States moves forward meeting base load electric power, carbon sequestration will be phased in over the next 20 years in parallel with development of high-temperature nuclear power reactors after 2025 and breeder reactors with reprocessing by 2050. All available technologies, as well as improvements in energy efficiency, will be needed to meet demand. If carbon management or other policy changes occur, the balance between technologies may change, but about 130 GW(e) of generating capacity — as well as upgraded distribution and transmission capacity will be needed in the United States. The administration's Advanced Energy Initiative (2006) — looking towards zero-emissions coal, improved solar, wind, clean safe nuclear for electricity; breakthroughs in corn-based ethanol by 2012 and advanced in batteries for hybrid-electric hydrogen cars by 2020 — is looking to address core energy technology issues.

In addition to the R&D challenges, major workforce "opportunities" are expected. It is projected that 40 percent of the U.S. skilled workforce can retire within about four years. There are potentially higher levels of retirement within utilities and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex, where 75 percent of those workers with nuclear and related technology expertise could retire by 2010.

The energy industry incorporates a broad range of sectors, including: petroleum and natural gas extraction, refining, and distribution, electric power generation, distribution and mining. Public utilities employed about 600,000 workers in 2002. Electric power generation, transmission and distribution provided almost three in four utility jobs (436,000), while natural gas distribution (116,000) and other systems (48,000) provided the remainder (U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics). Substantial numbers of people are engaged in "energy/chemical R&D," where investment in the United States total about $33B per year. The U.S. DOE directly invests about $1.2B in hydrogen, nuclear, fuel cell, advanced coal and renewable technologies. A reasonable estimate for the energy-chemical R&D workforce is about 215,000 people. A further group are those employed by manufacturing and construction industries that support energy technologies.

Electric utilities in power generation, transmission and distribution are employing about 412,000 people. Of these, 14.5 percent are professionals (computer, electrical, nuclear engineers and technicians); 26 percent installation and maintenance or repair (electrical and electronic crafts and trades);12.8 percent nuclear and power plant operators; and 6.4 percent construction and extraction. By 2010, it is estimated that there will be a need for 10,000 skilled technical and craft workers per year; 680 electrical engineers (rising to ~800 by 2013); and the greatest hiring needs will be in maintenance and repair, power line installers and repairers, managers, power plant operators and entry-level workers. It is projected that there will be a 9 percent per year growth in the entry-level positions.

In looking particularly to the potential renewable energy workforce, this will be more labor intensive. For example, a 40m gallon ethanol plant creats 1,400 construction and 40 operations and maintenance positions: 5.9 GW (e) of new renewable capacity creates about 28,000 person years of construction jobs and 3,000 plant operations and maintenance positions. The nuclear industry is projected to require about 90,000 new staff by 2011 to support fuel cycle, plant outages, engineering design and construction services, plant operations and maintenance, universities and government and contractors. New two-unit plants may need ~1,000 staff, so 13 two-unit stations would create 13,000 operations and maintenance positions, as well as many 10,000's of construction jobs.

For highly skilled positions in recent years, the United States has relied upon the foreign born and foreign trained. It is estimated that 50 percent of those in the United States with a Ph.D. are foreign born. However, for a number of reasons, there have been reductions in specialty visa applications as well as the foreign talent entering the United States in recent years.

The demographics of the retirement of "baby-boomers" and the smaller replacement generation are undeniable. The Department of Labor projects that jobs requiring science, engineering and technical training will increase 51 percent from 1998 to 2008 — and current data indicate that this growth is occurring. This is four times faster than overall job growth and, as a result, some 6 million job openings may exist for scientists, engineers and technicians. A series of recent studies discuss the science and engineering labor force and in particular the nuclear education and staffing challenge that the U.S. is facing. There will be competition for those with skills needed to ensure energy supply, and other industries are commonly seen as more attractive places to work.

The numbers issue is compounded by the reluctance among many students to enter science, engineering and technical craft careers. Only 26 percent of U.S. high school graduates are considered qualified for science and engineering courses in higher education. The United States may be able to employ advanced technology, use computers, advanced instrumentation and monitoring/diagnostics, and do tasks smarter and faster using automated. Such approaches are reported to potentially reduce staffing needs by up to 40 percent, but a more highly skilled "new energy workforce" is still needed. Erosion of U.S. science, math and technology skills, at all levels, from crafts to Ph.D.'s, remains a major issue.

To maintain the U.S. standard of living and to support economic growth, significant investments are needed in developing indigenous energy resources, particularly in technologies that limit or eliminate greenhouse gas emissions. Industry is recognizing the workforce issues and a consortium of utilities and their associations, the Edison Electric Institute, American Gas Association and Nuclear Energy Institute formed a "Center for Energy Workforce Development" in March 2006. The issues around eroding science and math skills, as well as demographics, are extensively reported — for example, Rising above the Gathering Storm (National Academies, 2005). Effective action is still needed to deliver the technology needed for the new energy economy and a next generation workforce with good math and science skills, and who are attracted to careers in all parts of the energy supply chain: research, generation, transmission and distribution. Opportunities abound in energy supply for IEEE members — not least for power, electronic and electrical, and computer engineers and technicians who will be needed in significant numbers over the coming decades.

Leonard J. Bond, Ph.D., is director of the new Center for Advanced Energy Studies (CAES), recently established in Idaho Falls by a partnership between Idaho National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy-Idaho, University Consortia, and members of Battelle Energy Alliance. He is a Senior Member of the IEEE, and IEEE Region 6 Delegate Elect/Director-Elect 2007-2008. Comments may be submitted to todaysengineer@ieee.org.