The Future of Aerospace — Challenges Lie Ahead in Our Pursuit of 'The Final Frontier'

by George F. McClure

The tragic loss of the space shuttle Columbia dramatizes problems that have long existed in the aerospace industry. Despite the corporate consolidations we have already seen, more capacity exists in the industry than business opportunities warrant. To put it in perspective, the total value of global space business doesn’t even exceed the annual sales volume at Home Depot.

Some time ago, NASA’s budget constraints led the agency to extend orbiter operational life to some 35 years. This move eroded business opportunities further. Recently, one knowledgeable observer noted that at projected levels of demand, either Boeing or Lockheed Martin will eventually be forced out of the space business, leaving a domestic space monopoly for large systems¹.

Out of Stock

Design of the current orbiter fleet began in 1972. Columbia initiated flight operations in 1981, followed by Challenger, Discovery and Atlantis, which were all operational by 1985. When we lost Challenger in 1986, NASA used the set of spares included in the original components purchase to assemble a replacement orbiter, Endeavour, which was completed in 1992.

With only three orbiters left to support the International Space Station (ISS), NASA must make some difficult choices. NASA has no spares left to assemble another orbiter. This lack of components might actually be a good thing, however, given that such spares would have 1970s technology and materials limitations, even with updated electronics. 

Costly New Applications Face Many Technical Hurdles

The cost to boost payload into orbit has been the greatest deterrent to new space applications, including space tourism. A decade ago, IEEE-USA recognized that civil uses of space would advance significantly, if boost costs were reduced by an order of magnitude. The Shuttle Transportation System costs about $10,000 per pound to put payload into orbit. Similarly, launch costs using Atlas and Delta rockets are about $5,000 per pound. 

NASA sponsored research for the X-33, a single-stage-to-space vehicle, which would have served as a half-size prototype of the larger Venture Star, a vehicle to be built without government support and one that promised $1,000-per-pound launch costs. The X-33 program was funded to develop the technology on a sub-orbital vehicle, with first flight tests scheduled for the spring of 1999.

Problems with the composite fuel tanks prompted NASA to cancel the X-33 program, although it continued work on the "aerospike" engine. Then, at about the time the Mars lander failed, NASA also canceled the later X-34 Venture Star program because of considerable cost growth. This string of cancellations caused NASA to undertake a critical review of programs. 

Where We Currently Stand

Under NASA’s Space Launch Initiative, a current program continues for the X-37, a robotic technology flight demonstrator for a reusable orbital space plane. This program could lead to development of a crew rescue vehicle by 2010 and a crew transfer vehicle by 2012.

Also as part of NASA’s Space Launch Initiative, NASA awarded four contracts for the Alternate Access to Station project in July 2002, to expand options beyond today’s capability for delivering supplies to the International Space Station. These awards, with a combined value of $10.8 million, will cover 12 months of work and will yield cargo vehicle concepts for rendezvous and docking with the Space Station, as well as technology requirements for accomplishing an automated approach by NASA and industry.

In addition, NASA submitted a new Integrated Space Transportation Plan (ISTP) last November for fiscal year 2003. The ISTP would benefit the International Space Station, space shuttle program, and NASA’s science and research objectives. It would change five-year budgets but stay within the original FY2003 budget. The ISTP emphasizes developing an Orbital Space Plane (OSP) using existing technologies. This plane would be used primarily for crew transfer and emergency rescue, with the assumption being that the space shuttle orbiter fleet would continue to handle heavy cargo delivery.

Russia Can Play Greater Role in Interim

As the investigation into the loss of the Columbia continues, and while the the U.S. orbiter fleet remains grounded, two Russian vehicle types will service the International Space Station (ISS). An unmanned Progress M-47 cargo craft docked with the ISS on 4 February to deliver nearly three tons of supplies. The next Progress supply mission is set for June. In April, a Soyuz vehicle will bring a fresh crew to the 16-nation ISS. Russia is under contract for sending two Soyuz capsules and three Progress supply ships to the ISS each year. In addition, the United States can contract with Russia for more missions and even for building more vehicles (a Progress costs about $22 million and takes two years to build).

Should NASA revive and upgrade the X-33 into an equivalent of the Venture Star to carry both cargo and crew, it would have to complete prototype design, construction and testing before it could build a fleet, a process that would take more than a decade. Meanwhile, the ISS, now about one-third finished, is scheduled for completion by 2006, and expected to have a 10-year operational life. Obviously, that schedule will slip; no rocket is available that can haul up the large, bulky components that were planned for the shuttles to carry.

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George F. McClure is IEEE-USA's technology policy editor.